Permanent Gaza ceasefire remains elusive, despite growing global pressure to end war: Experts

A permanent Gaza ceasefire deal remains “unlikely” at this stage, with little sign that the unresolved differences between Israel and Hamas could be ironed out, said observers. 
This comes as United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended his ninth visit to the Middle East on Wednesday (Aug 21) without a breakthrough. 
The deal “needs to get done, and it needs to get done in the days ahead,” said Mr Blinken, urging Hamas to accept a bridging proposal to end the 10-month-old war.
Hamas has rejected the proposal that aims to narrow the gaps, saying it leans to Israel’s demands. 
Dr Anas Iqtait, lecturer at Australian National University’s Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, said he is “very pessimistic” about the likelihood of a permanent ceasefire agreement. 
“The past six months or so has seen a process of negotiations between Hamas and Israel that has wielded very little success,” he told CNA’s Asia First on Thursday. 
“We have seen the American administration continually evolve its position and in most cases, in favour of the Israeli position that has also been evolving. So we are seeing a situation where we are at a deadlock.”
Dr Iqtait said Israel prefers a temporary truce that would still allow it to re-engage militarily in the Gaza Strip. 
“But then everybody else, including the American government, is in favour of more or less a permanent ceasefire that would put an end to the nightmare that we have been seeing in Gaza, from a humanitarian perspective,” he added. 
Dr Iqtait also highlighted other issues such as Israel’s military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow buffer zone along the Gaza-Egypt border, and the Netzarim Junction, an area that cuts off northern Gaza from the south, which Hamas is against. 
“The only thing that will result in change is for the United States to truly pull its leverage on Israel and on all parties in these negotiations,” he noted.
“And that will likely get us closer to a deal than where we are at this moment.”
The Gaza war started on Oct 7 last year, after Hamas-led fighters stormed into southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 captives, according to Israeli tallies. Some 120 hostages are still being held, although Israel believes a third of them are dead. 
More than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory campaign since the start of the war, according to the Gaza health ministry.
Mr Blinken had said the current round of ceasefire talks may be the last opportunity for a hostage deal. 
Dr Iqtait said: “Blinken and the US administration, the mediators, the wider observers… understand that time is running out, not only for the release of Israeli captives, but also for the livelihoods of millions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip that have more or less lost all means to life.”
Dr Jessica Genauer, senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University, said Israel could agree to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of hostages, as this would give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government a much needed boost. 
“But I don’t see any way that the Israeli government would agree to a more permanent ceasefire that actually leaves Hamas in any kind of political or military control in the Gaza Strip,” she told CNA938 on Thursday. 
“In some ways, I don’t see the current Israeli government, in any case, agreeing to any sort of more permanent ceasefire without having actually assassinated or eliminated (Hamas leader) Yahya Sinwar… the architect behind the Oct 7 attacks.”
Meanwhile, Hamas is unlikely to release the remaining hostages, “which are really their key leverage in this whole situation, without a more permanent agreement for it to stay in control politically and militarily in the Gaza Strip”, Dr Genauer noted. 
Even if Israel manages to eliminate Sinwar, additional actors “could take (his) place in terms of leadership”, said Dr Genauer. 
“However, it would really be a big blow to Hamas’ organisational structure… and the ability of Hamas to operate as a more centralised organisation,” she added.
“On the Israeli side, Netanyahu and his government would be able to claim that they’d achieved a sort of success or a key objective that they said that they were aiming for. So I do think that would probably be a critical turning point.”
The recent assassination of several high-profile Hamas and Hezbollah leaders pushes the  Middle East “closer to a point where we are going to see some kind of more serious response”, said Dr Genauer. 
“Each further assassination that takes place such as the one that we saw just within the last 24 hours does push us closer,” she added, referring to an Israeli strike that killed senior Palestinian militant Khalil Maqdah on Wednesday. 
“Then we might see a kind of a tit-for-tat where Israel again responds to whatever Hezbollah does, and we unfortunately get closer to this kind of tipping point (that) could actually precipitate a broader conflict in the Middle East.”
If that happens, Israel is unlikely to have the military capabilities to respond, said Dr Genauer. 
“I do think that this would seriously overstretch Israel’s military forces and capability, because there’s already this ongoing military conflict between Israel and Hamas.”
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris called Netanyahu to discuss “the ceasefire and hostage release deal and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tensions,” the White House said.
Dr Genauer said: “Biden is coming up towards the end of his term as president. And so I think the Biden administration is very much focused on trying to get some kind of outcome, or at least some kind of temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before the presidential election takes place.”